Methodology 

The required investment by region in the NIIMP has been derived following a 3-step approach [Figure 4.1]:

■       First, the characteristics of each region were considered, including demographical spread of population across regions, the spread of economic activities, area of the region and primary resources that can form a basis for comparative advantage for the region determine economic focus areas;

■       Second, each of the asset classes under consideration was then reviewed and a preliminary assessment of requirements for infrastructure was performed based on the key drivers for each asset class as well as minimal infrastructure requirements;

■       Finally, the requirements were adjusted based on economic development patterns and development priorities for each region (e.g., increased investments in rail are required in regions with higher potential for the mining industry, as well as for connectivity to ports). These adjustments were based on a validation workshop with the states’ infrastructure TWG, followed by validation workshops in each of the six geopolitical zones.

Specific potential and comparative advantages as well as challenges facing the various regions can be summarised as follows:

■       North West – The region has potential in wind and solar energy, as well as solid minerals (iron ore, gold, kaolin). Moreover, there is a significant potential for up-scaling agricultural production. With about 35.9 million people, it is also the most populous of the 6 regions, which conveys inherent human resources potential. However, the region’s challenges include poor road infrastructure, a harsh climate with significant erosion/desertification; a weak industrial base and rural-urban migration;

■       North East – The region, being the largest of the six regions, has abundant space for agricultural cultivation, significant surface water resources (including for hydropower) and solid minerals (limestone, barite, coal), as well as solar power potential. Gas reserves in the region are being explored. However, the region’s challenges include security concerns, undeveloped rural areas, no proper solid waste management across the region, as well as lack of a detailed base map;

■       North Central – The region has potential in surface water resources, large solid minerals reserves (iron ore, coal, limestone etc.), fertile land, skilled manpower and inland waterways. However, the region’s challenges include poor industrial presence, only 20 per cent of the population with access to good sanitation; heavy erosion in the Jos (Plateau) area and a lack of detailed base maps for each area;

–    With the fastest growing population and corresponding increase in economic activity, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) has particular characteristics that differ from the rest of the country and the region. High urbanisation and population density favour manufacturing and commercial activities, but also means there are substantial needs in particular within transportation, housing, urban development, health and education. Being home to the nation’s capital, the FCT also has particular security-related infrastructure development needs.

■       South West – The region constitutes a major economic centre of Nigeria. It has potential in skilled manpower, high population density and urbanization, solid minerals (gold, glass sand, granite), commercial and industrial density, inland waterways and agricultural potential. However, the region’s challenges include inadequate physical infrastructure (transport, housing, health, education and power), rapid unplanned urbanisation, high unemployment, low agricultural productivity and environmental degradation;

■       South East – The region has potential in oil and gas and solid minerals reserves (coal, black marble, etc). Moreover, high urbanisation and population density are favourable for manufacturing clusters as well as commercial activities. However, the region suffers from a poor infrastructure base to support intensified trade and commercial activities (e.g., transportation, communications infrastructure, power and water supply), as well as erosion issues;

■       South South – The region has potential in oil and gas reserves, surface water resources and inland waterways, exceptionally fertile land and a favourable climate for agriculture, forest resources, tourism and seaports. However, the region’s challenges include a poor road network, waterways not well developed, lack of railway service (except the Port Harcourt to Kaduna link), extensive environmental degradation (oil pollution, coastal erosion and gas flaring) and security issues.